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22 Feb 2017 13:35:39 ET | 64 pages Global
Global Economic Outlook and Strategy
and inflation that we forecast for 2017. Our growth and inflation forecasts for 2017
and 2018 remain broadly unchanged this month. We continue to expect 2.8% and
3.2% global real GDP growth in 2017 and 2018 (at market exchange rates), up from
2.5% in 2016, with 1.9% and 2.1% growth in AEs and 4.2% and 4.7% growth in
EMs. There is some incipient evidence that growth in trade volumes has bottomed
out in H2 2016, suggesting that the multi-year slowdown in global capex may also
in EMs). A pickup in commodity prices and rises in volatile spending categories
have been driving much of the recent upside surprises in inflation, suggesting that
some of the increases may be temporary. However, overall, we suspect that upside
risks to near-term global inflation are rising somewhat.
US tax reform. We continue to expect that a major US tax reform, featuring declines
in corporate and personal income tax rates amongst other items, will be passed
before the end of the 2017 calendar-year, and deliver a boost of roughly 1.5pp to
US GDP in 2018-2021.
exception is the US, where we expect the Fed to hike twice (by 25bp each), most
likely in June and December. However, recent data and some hawkish commentary
have raised the possibility of a hike in March (and of possibly three hikes in 2017).
essay in this edition discusses the drivers of European Vox Populi risk. The key
event in 2017 is the French Presidential election. Our central scenario remains a
victory for the center-right candidate, but a surprise win by National Front candidate
Le Pen could have major consequences for France and Europe in coming years.
Figure 1. Currency and Interest Rate Forecasts, as of 22 February 2017
Current 1Q 17F 2Q 17F 3Q 17F 4Q 17F 1Q 18F 2Q 18F
United States: Feder
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